Very big moves out there today – a great demonstration of how news can force a change in positioning. Overly bullish to neutral positioning is what we saw today. Yes things were down 15%, but many things have been up a ton over the last few months and no one thinks twice. The market can punish complacency on days like this. What I would expect to see next if the news continues to be relevant is a switch to more bearish positioning where we get a little bit of panic and people pile in short and load puts tomorrow – and by that point the positioning makes a bounce more likely and would make it sharper. The lower and longer the dip the better the bounce. Maybe 114 area or 110 and then looking for a change in action for a bounce.
CRM was a nice example of relative strength on an ugly market day. Look for things that money is flowing to and that have some kind of reason (CEO positive X comments on DeepSeek highlighting the importance of metadata vs uder interface).
Ty Chris!