We’re entering wait and see mode for any high conviction opportunities. We really need to see what the open brings. Politics aside Trump markets are undoubtably and without debate the best markets for traders – I am not sure how one could make a claim otherwise. The volatility, knee jerk reactions, off the cuff comments, Friday afternoon major headlines, trade wars etc. I mean — as a trader you want volatility. Volatility is guaranteed in a Trump term.
What does that mean for you/us?
Be a damn trader! Don’t try to “figure out” what something “should do” or think “big picture” it’s VERY hard to confidently swing stuff in a market like this when things could be pressing highs one day and in the gutter the very next.
So where is the edge? The edge is in the range. The volume. The volatility. The range.
If you’re wrong and stay wrong – you’re wasting not only time but opportunity cost of being right somewhere else. Right or right out. I will start into many names some will be right right away and I will scale and others will be wrong but I won’t fight. I won’t scale beyond a starter unless we get a secondary set up. The ONLY way I scale beyond starters is when we have a SECONDARY set up. When that SECONDARY set up fails I MUST/HAVE TO go back to starter size otherwise my RISK/EXPOSURE is elevated when I am MOST wrong.
As we are getting into volatile markets you’ll see me repeat myself like I did Friday.
RGTI was a fantastic trade – my 3rd best trade on Friday. Was I right, right away? No, not at all. But as I wrote I had a starter.
Let’s just use 30k as an example.
If I want to short 30k shares I likely start with 3-5k shares see if I am right and scale in if so. If not, I focus on where the wick gets saved that becomes my line. I will NOT size above 3-5k shares unless proven RIGHT or unless we get a set up again. IF we get a set up again and I decide to go to 10k shares + on 2nd entry and it SOAKS – if the trend firms and keeps grinding and I stay short with 10k shares that’s CONTRARY to the plan. Size back out and wait for next set up.
MOST PEOPLE say they are starting in – but the difference is they put on 2k shares and their full size is 3-5k shares. So, is that really a starter or are they 50-80% into their full size? That is why you see me write “for selective readers” because I am combating the PM’s “Hey I just stopped out XYZ you still bearish?” when I specifically write what level I would AVOID short until it breaches.
YOU KNOW if that’s YOU. If you are NOT good at the front side the EASY answer = AVOID. Wait for break of trend.
The only reason I repeat this kind of stuff is this market we are coming into — IT MATTERS. You will get SMOKED by trying to find a bottom or find a top. If you behave in these markets $$ adds up fast.
Main Watches:
MARA reactive trade – trade war going to be volatile. Need to see Monday. Great trader so far last few days.
RGTI levels we have gone over have been working so damn well. Keep using the same spots IMO.
TEM 945-10AM+ trend join
HIMS big break out – either weak open vs $36 for $40-42 or gap over $38-40 for fade red.
OKLO NNE SMR unreal fades Friday – piked them out but a great example of being a trader. It had a nice off open but identified right away $41.50 being a soak spot = VOID any size if it firms up move on. We went over that but that’s exactly what I am talking about behaving in this market.
Failed Follow Through:
Continuation:
Staying Familiar:
Appreciate you clarifying what % of total size your starters are, have been meaning to ask.