Josh WL For 8/5/24

by | Aug 3, 2024

Volatility is Back and its great for trading. Couple of scenarios mapped out in my head so far. One being a gap down big and reverse, this is the one it feels like everyone wants, whether we get it or not is unknown. 2. Gap up small , grind out a little then give it all back and resume trend down. 3. Open flat and chop people around all day. The point is anything can and will happen and it’s important to have an expanded thinking here if playing this environment. Nearly every stock im looking at are trading ranges higher than all year long which is no surprise given the surge in VIX. To me that says there’s a lot of meat on the bone.

VIX- 20 breakout things are going to be more volatile here so expect bigger ranges this hasn’t happened since October 2023 above 23 ideally we can get some panic to me its been orderly selling so far

VXX- ideally get a para setup this week but definitely not going to be in front of this freight train on a 2day monster move ideally a gap and then green to red scenario if we are going to see a fade at all 65-70 OR MORE.  I think this is what everyone wants a premium decay. Mid 60s (63-65) has been rejected all year long if we build through that imo we can go a lot higher.

SMH- Ill be eyeing vs this 206 level at the 200day if we panic tomorrow off the open for a buy

DELL- will be watching vs 95 on a panic type scenario

MU- same thing this is all a correlated trade SMH DELL etc its just a matter of vehicle selection

MSTR- i will be eying this vs 1540 -1560 for a short this week just so much momentum fade crypto coming in this weekend

COIN- also might have a date with 200sma at 185 watching with BTC and MSTR

NVDA- been a great trader if you are consistently monitoring levels ATR at all time highs trading avg almost 7% a day intraday range think this can be sub 100 this week

SOXL – ideally 26-24 washout for a potenitla buy zone

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