Great way to start the year! Amazing opportunities – the cheap names really kicked it into high gear early in the week but it’s a good reminder to know when to push the gas and when to take your foot off it. Had about 5-7 big gappers in a row in the sub .50 range that went nuts but – taking foot off the gas a bit on those as momentum is starting to come back on names not only in small cap low floats like CPAH but also major volume runner like AGTC which this week had an incredible bias change form short to long and took a good portion of the move.
I was pretty happy with the way I traded this week I had a couple over stays after sizing into a winner which as noted in my last Sunday scan — was my goal to decrease. I did it three times but recognized it super early still had some avoidable slippage so my goal this week is to fine tune that even more.
TRIL was the stand out trade – where normally I’d probably give my self a head ache. Knowing how far it’s moved I know that I’m not going to miss the MAJORITY of the move by being patient so there is no reason to be a hero and try to find the top. By REACTIVELY trading the parabolic moves i am one step ahead the patient shorts getting taken to the cleaners. WITH THAT SAID – it’s our job to lock into flushes along the way until the tide turns. That’s exactly what I did allowed me to see the trade clearly and actually get a lot of better entries vs. being too patient and expecting the fade to happen when I wanted it to.
The other stand out trade was AGTC switching bias to the long. Expecting a swipe up and expecting a midday squeeze. I think it caught a lot of shorts trying to be patient and ignoring the fact that it should have cracked and didn’t. Once it reclaimed key levels, squeeze was on. Fortunate to have laid that one out clearly in the room – they’re not always that clear but, when they are – gotta take ’em.
Here’s what is on my radar for the week ahead.
Video Scan and Game Plan
Stocks to Watch
SRNE nice short pre market on this one – identified the seller in the room double top $5.90s but for me it was the $5.7x’s refresh seller that got my interested and wrote in the room when I saw it. I started to lean at that point and discussed that I didn’t trust this one bit on the broadcast. None of it makes sense, based off their filings and what they’re looking to do once they raise a bunch of cash I wouldn’t be surprised to see 1. This thing crash 2. Board deny that it’s in the best interest to move forward with any of the non binding takeout offer and 3. We’ll read about this one day — Anyhow, Looking to trade the fade but if trend continues to be supported be cautious. Many know this smells, many likely on short side already so have to be nimble.
PHAS very clean trade in the room Friday went EXACTLY as planned. I was prepared for this. Dabbled into the front side but we got pretty lucky because a newsletter came in right after it opened and all their members chased the highs – they failed to send it into a circuit halt so at that point I scaled scaled scaled with a target of $6.20-5.80s – it went right there before another newletter came in late day that sorta changed the trend. The good part with that is we’ll have another nice trade come Monday. Higher better and looking to do a quiet fade through the day.
TRIL plenty of range here – looking for failed follow through trade $3.20 and $3 is key levels for me. Shorts are loaded here so if they can’t hold it under $2.80-2.90 it won’t take much once buy ins come if they can support it.
AMRN approval marked the top. So far so good – longer term outlook I had/have been mentioning I expected it to fade off unwind etc. Easily can fill this gap sub $18 and then some. The problem I noted is it’s a cult stock. Any time I tweet my bias I have about 12 new blocks that day from AMRN folks telling me how wrong I am. Long story short lowest point it’s been since the idea. Looking to fade all days it’s heavy sub VWAP.
AGTC ideally hangs out on Monday and then Tuesday we get a nice cover with a red/green trade opportunity.
NKTR early spot Friday, came back tested VWAP and then non stop squeeze. Wish I paid a bit more attention there. Wild one.
Lower float watches:
SEED not really much of a bias, I’ll likely locate some stock for the eventual short but let’s see what Monday brings.
CGA if SEED stays crazy they’ll come for this one and it’s thin enough to trap if it wants to with 1-2 mil vol
CPAH got long a few times Friday didn’t really want to over stay too much in case they flushed it. Got the meat of the first squeeze and moved on. Watch a weak open $3.50 range and if they start to support it and then hang around $3.80s etc I’d look for r/g possible circuit halt up. On the flip side, there was some serious volume into the close 800k + candle which is about a 1/3 of the float – may have been their exit so keep that in mind. May be one and done. We’ll see.
Stalking Trend Para/Fade:
SPCE working like we talked about in another Sunday Scan – I was hopeful for this to squeeze out $15s + range and then give us a $1-2 big share big volume opportunity. Starting to gear up / para.
BLDP higher better $9.50-10 + para and sit back
MAXR going to set some price alerts for this one $19.50 / $20 / $20.50
BE looking for the day it goes para or the day it fails vs. VWAP
Chart unwind potentials:
EOLS watching all pops vs. $11 – possible single digits.
AIMT great idea on scan Thursday night for Friday – goal was gap and failed follow through for the fade. Looking to do the same until we test $29-30s
PTLA 945-10AM trend join
Current Swings / Bigger Picture Idea Watches:
ARDS SELB CNSP IMMP new positions over the last week just joining trend. Finally sold the last bits of PTON since it couldn’t hold the $30 level – out about 1/4 into the parabolic move – out 1/4 the week after – out 1/4 the bounce after all the hit pieces and I was trying to let the last batch work but nahhhh swings have been so hot lately I’d rather put that $$ to better use.
CNSP lower float recent IPO started in dips Friday.
FORD I said $1.20 would interest me it had some vol into the close. Watching dips if $1.15-1.20 start to base $1.35 would be key – needs 1-2 mil vol to really get interest but worthy eye since it had a delayed response to the PR.
KALA weak open for break out looks fantastic + the wicks we talk about. Keep in mind everything on scan is technical based – will review what is pending/coming out etc etc. before taking a swing on pharma names.
Other Notables:
I don’t want to chart over load but others I will set price alerts for in the coming week are the following:
BYND gap para and fade
VBIV trend join after consolidation period post news ends
BBBY trend join
RAD dead cat bounce expecting 15-25% opportunity, no rush here.
APLT own some $45 trigger bought the flush day I wrote, scale if right.
Great stuff Nate Thanks! too many takeaways today, on top I always like level 2 commentary:
*** Liked it when talked about your edge with trades that are crowed with Longs, so when those retail longs started to chase, and chart fails ->those longs go straight into the offer , and if there is no bid left , those who just bought on the offer they will try to hit the bid, AND, when there is no bid there —> it goes right back down.
**Also to be cautious to short low floaters , if there is too much volume compared to the floats ~And you’d rather trade with probability (from now and then we need such a reminder that trading is a probability game ;))
**with charts that are straight up so far; such as MAXR: that you don’t need to find the top -> let do its thing, if it started to fail -> join the trend , assuming the flushes will get bought up, AND you like it when intraday it fails -> coms up, -> fails -> comes up, ~AND to look for trend reversal under major support when volume shifts from being thin to heavy on the offer