Insane squeezers last week again — this time big names like CCCC and ALT with real $$, not illiquid small cap flow.
PLTR AFRM CLSK MARA RIOT CVNA daily drivers for large caps – just depends if the market goes straight up or down. Bias would form on those accordingly.
CCCC major squeeze out over $8 before giving the big unwind. Once again, glad I am taking it easy this year. I feel like I would have been smoked on that if I went aggressive with size just by slippage alone. Respected levels really well, but with too much size and the least bit stubborn, those moves were aggressive.
ALT another one that is behaving really well $7.20-7.50 identified as key spots on Friday both of which held. You can be as short-biased as you want, but if you size over key levels, you open yourself up for bigger losses.
Let me preface this by saying if you hyperfocus on these – there is a good chance statistically that you have no edge and will lose more often than not. I do NOT trade every liquidation trade despite monitoring them all and waiting for them to produce proper setups that RISK is decreased due to inventory exhausted overhead.
You should be focused on HIGH probability – HIGHER reward, lower risk trades for LONGEVITY in the markets. This is a small niche opportunity that only a few truly understand AND, more importantly, understand where to be wrong if wrong.
But, I know many who focus on it and do like to stay on top of these because, as always, I will warn so people can prevent a dumb trade on the long side when we know the writing is on the wall.
CHSN obviously we talked about it in depth last Sunday video, this week I’ll talk more about the ‘why’ vs. the others. As usual, goes without saying if you’re new or don’t FULLY understand these names = AVOID always.
Remember, people have short-term memories. The next one, everyone may pile drive the bid and end up in a circuit halt up just like MSS.
In addition, these are never worthy of size (for me) – if you absolutely crush one on size, just remember if it went the other way … what would happen? Where would you be? This is the risk that most don’t think about. They just focus on the potential gain instead. This is why most will be blasted on future ones.
So again, as I’ve said before, pay attention to what you’re getting rewarded for. Focus on your WINNERS, not always your LOSERS. Many times a reckless decision can turn into a monster gain only to take it back and 10 x more on the next one.
I don’t trade these with size these days — that ship sailed two years ago. I miss it, sure, but they started to get crowded and gamified, and that’s why I started to talk about them about six months after their peak. No real upside in talking about them before when they’d produce such insane opportunities. I only trust a few K shares. Otherwise, if I am wrong, I just don’t need those sorta headaches these days.
It’s very difficult to post or discuss anything on these because you have the younger 20-something assumption-making, selective-reading peanut gallery, only seeing what they want and suggesting I am highlighting this as an easy trade, no-brainer, etc., which is never the case.
In addition, they assume I trade every name that fits this particular scenario every time there is a big bid and overlook the warnings/context and real-time discussions leading to the trade opportunity vs. understanding the actual why.
So I do apologize if I mute/block people, but for my own sanity of those who would rather just yap yap yap with 10% context vs. learn – it was a goal of mine in 2023 not to waste time engaging with these types of traders. So, don’t take it personally.
If I don’t warn, then people end up trying to bounce these. They end up losing 80%, and if I do warn, it’s “reckless,” etc.
Look, most times, if you take the same trade that most made on Friday, you’d end up in a circuit halt up.
You’ll notice that I didn’t take the same trade as most. You need to understand that. Otherwise, you will end up in an ILAG or TOP situation if you spend time focused on what you could have made vs. what you could have lost.
I do NOT trade every one of these types. I ONLY trade them AFTER a manufactured squeeze is complete with overhead inventory.
My goal is to focus on the commonalties to help you see the signs and avoid disasters, just like the prediction that TOP would circuit halt and not open until 4 PM into the close the day it went to $200s AHs (both warnings given at $7 and $14-15 range) and the same one at $4.20s that we discussed in real time – NOTABLE soak. Remember, liquidation trades do not have a soak.
And, just like NCL and MSS, if there is low volume or really ZERO edge, I will warn anyone who is trying to trade them. And yes, MSS would have worked, but in my eyes, the only criteria it showcased was a potential headache – so it was an avoid just like NCL.
Video Topics:
- ALT CCCC Real Liquidity
- 2023 Changes 2024 Pre Discussion
- CHSN Why This One?
- NCL MSS Too Risky
Last week, the Icon Winner was not in the US, so we picked again.
Here are the winners:
- EnjoyTruth (Icon Meals)
- Swaggy1658 (T-Shirt)
Video Scan and Game Plan
Stocks to Watch
AAOI 21.60s = key area to watch for failed follow through vs $22
ALT $7.20-7.50 = key ideally $8 clear out and fade but given the volume given the move – this move may have longevity so be cautious trying to force a bias. Reactive trade, fades, unwinds — if it starts to firm up respect it
CCCC nice entry on Friday – ideally $5.20-5.50 swipe and fade.
Failed Follow Through:
NKLA hopefully keeps going but looking for the day to fade it back once it has a para
GETR morning shove for failed follow through
MYO monitoring with price alerts for the day it takes a break
Continuation:
IMMP weak open possible r/g
ICCT weak open dips watch if liquidity trap forms over the next few days
Staying Familiar:
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