Hopefully, everyone had a great weekend.
This week, we have Chris and Stan sharing their takes on the current market action and main watches for the week ahead.
Video Scan and Game Plan
Chris’ Market Take
Markets have been active all around, with lots of runners and some new dynamics developing. The FOMC meeting solidified that the Fed is going to run things “hot” for now. This means they still plan on making 3 rate cuts before the end of the year even though inflation is ticking up again.
Personally, I think this could be a mistake that will cost the Fed later because it’s very likely that we will start to have more hot inflation readings, and Powell will have to retract his comments and put off rate cuts until later in the year.
We talked about how the 2-year note yield can help us see what the Fed is really saying, and that trick worked this FOMC as the 2-year note yield dropped and the 2-year note rallied.
This potentially means that markets may continue to rip, with commodities, Bitcoin, high short-interest stocks, and speculative names catching a bid.
The other scenario is that the market was expecting this stance and we digest this move in the general market for a bit. If some Fed members start changing their tune this week after seeing the market’s reaction to the FOMC, then that could also impact us.
I like to have a plan for either scenario.
The last thing I’ll mention on the macro side is the surge in the US dollar. Japan is changing its policies there, and that impacts currency markets that can spill over to the stock market.
Moving on to some thoughts for the week with individual names, NVDA showed a lot of strength after the GCT conference and may keep the chip market going still, but I’m paying attention to which names have relative strength vs relative weakness. AMD was a great example of relative weakness this week, and I was able to get a nice trade from it. I laid this strategy out for IU members in detail, so if people are interested in the full strategy, look at my recent IU watchlist.
I also wanted to cover a strategy that I use for some SPX put option trades. I had a nice trade on Friday using this strategy, and I wanted to share my thought process vs. taking random SPY/SPX trades and hoping they work. This strategy involves looking at the pillars of the market.
I map out which parts of the market drive SPX up or down, and notice when most of those “pillars” are deteriorating but the market is still hanging on by one last part or “pillar”. When four out of the main five components are weak, I watch the last pillar, and if I see that one starting to fail, I have a potential trade for a market flush. A few notes on this: use the proper size, make sure the put option premiums are cheap enough to make the reward potential worth it, and make the trade free ASAP and manage the rest. I’ll have more details on this strategy for IU members, so stay tuned.
Chris’ Main Watches
NVDA – Looking for relative strength for calls
AMD – Looking for relative weakness for puts
NKE – Looking for relative weakness for puts
MARA – Open to either strength or weakness depending on the market and BTC
FCX – Looking for strength for calls
Stan’s Market Take
The ‘pop and drop’ intraday market we discussed last weekend continues to thrive in the current environment. We’ve noticed several catalyst-driven moves where either once the catalyst is done or running into the catalyst timeframe, we notice a decent exchange of shares and then liquidity gets turned off and perpetual selling starts. Additionally, we have had nice all-day faders as well – ASST, KAVL, NVFY, SMX, YTEN etc.
SOUN was one of the major opportunities we saw play out that we have had our focus on over the last several weeks. If you think back to ALT, SHOT, CCCC, LUNR, etc, in the past, SOUN seems to be following a similar blueprint. Will monitor for a slow trickle lower with the occasional pop along the way moving forward.
DWAC was a great catalyst-driven opportunity. They had a vote in the morning, and after that liquidity run, it was an aggressive snap, recheck-in with VWAP, and remained heavy the rest of the day. $10+ point opportunity with decent risk setup. PHUN also reacted to the catalyst, albeit the volume was just not there.
CGC is the next big opportunity, in my opinion. The exact blueprint as above (LUNR SHOT ALT SOUN) – it has the volume, it has the narrative, it has the liquidity, the shareholder-type of base, etc and it will be a main watch in the coming week. Will look for a similar setup as we go over; either gap up, exhaust, and look for the fade – or morning flush vs 7s and look for the trend to form 10am+
Intraday clearouts and all-day faders continue to work. Obviously, risk management is key, and you must respect what the chart portrays vs. what you may want to see happen. YTEN and NVFY—even though I fumbled that one—were great all-day fader ideas. ASST had the potential, but it just held that .60s level all day. SMX and OTRK were great examples of midday clearouts that we’ve discussed previously. Nice trades all throughout. These will be kept on the back burner for “higher the better” continual unwinds.
Stan’s Main Watches
CGC main watch for the coming week. Ideally some major gap-up and blow-off move, and then look for the fade once it confirms. A single red candle doesn’t mean bearish here, would prefer to see it retest a few times and fail/confirm before any size is involved. The $6s and $7s level held a few times on Friday, so just taking a note for later. Other related names are good to keep in mind as well, can sprinkle risk across or look for relative weakness, etc. TLRY SNDL CRON ACB and others.
SOUN any pops that stay heavy are of interest. Ideally slow trickle lower in the coming days/weeks.
COIN nice daily clearout last week and will look for pops to stay heavy, ideally lower towards $210-$220. Need to see market and BTC agree for any conviction type of trade. Good opportunities intraday over last couple of days. Clean failed to follow through setups.
KAVL potential liquidity trap forming.
ASST the higher the better for the unwind.
OTRK the higher the better for the unwind.
GOEV ideally some sort of a clearout and then fail. Will look to fade pops that stay heavy, sub $4s into low $3s would be great.
NVFY the higher the better for the unwind. Great opportunity on Friday.
Giveaway Winners
- @Technics_Trader – T-Shirt
- @nmouts – T-Shirt
- @BellaDogzRainOasis – Free month of IU
Thanks, Chris and Stan
awesome thanks