Hope everyone had a fantastic weekend!
Headed out to San Diego this past Thursday night – quick trip out from one coast to the other but back at it Monday morning! Thanks to all those who came out to support Traders4ACause beach clean up AND some beach volleyball with Miles Partain (got a few lessons on the proper way to play)! Great time afterward with the CenterPoint team for some pizza! Looking forward to doing more of these and meeting new (and old) traders.
Feels like we are in a sneaky bull market on all the names that came in hard. They may have a legitimate business vs. those that are just unicorns that are staying near their lows. Big time in China names – even the smaller cap China names are catching up now TME HUYA etc. Also names like XPEV NIO finally found a base, volume was tracking early to beat it’s highest day ever — these are the signs that hey there is going to be an outlier opportunity here.
If the market stays like this into year-end we’re going to have some wild action back like 2020-2021 in my opinion for a 2-3 month period. An example is like XPEV TME HUYA FUTU PDD things have been compressed for so long – there’s a big transition day and from that point forward the bid starts to soak and never look back. Another look is TLRY CGC etc – huge volume bar day comes back in and then soaked from that point forward. All of these of course are in hindsight but the point here is keep in mind that day that has an insane amount of volume that upon pull backs never breaks — and in my opinion it’s good to start watching from a longer term perspective.
I think it’s important to understand we’ve had this happen CVNA NIO XPEV AMC etc — so what can you do next time different to allow you to participate in the upside or at least not get chopped on front side shorting?
In other words, in this market dips are getting absorbed on beaten names so what typically may have been a good fade is lasting for multiple days/week at this point on rebounds. If it stops going down, it’s going up — and faster.
During Sam’s webinar when I jumped on we discussed two main things:
- How when you have only a few names ie: TOPS RMED people gravitate towards the two and crowd them
- Noticing when things should have faded but instead each dip gets soaked.
We had some great examples of that this week.
RMED was the stand out from the long idea.
Lastly — One of the most popular questions this weekend in San Diego was how many setups do we need and how much time we should be spending trying to figure this out. I discussed some thoughts in the video.
Video Topics:
- Cautious being a jack of all trades
- Focus on one and slowly move to second etc etc.
- Cautious giving up too fast because it “doesn’t work anymore”
- Cycles come and go
- Special Deal
Video Scan and Game Plan
Stocks to Watch
AMC likely continue to have a daily trade for a few more days either going to set up for next leg up towards $9 or morning shove and fade off. I think there will be two more days of reactive trades (ie: waiting for the move to confirm letting it exhaust and participating from that point forward). An example I’d look for is something like a gap vs $8.40-8.50 level.
XPEV real nice daily action so far – main thing has been to be cautious off open. In hindsight sure easy to join the long but reality is kinda hit or miss sometimes so to me it’s best to wait for the action 945-10AM + blow off and if you’re looking to fade it wait for that failed follow through set up. If not, watch dips vs. VWAP 945-10AM+
NIO same as XPEV watch w/ peers LI – also sometimes good opps with LCID RIVN always good to review all for edge or relative weakness.
Failed Follow Through:
CTLT morning shove vs $52.50s I’d set price alerts $52 and $51.80-51.50 just to not miss the day it fades off.
CVNA been a daily opportunity both ways $8.40-8.50 + blow off if it stays heavy.
GRWG a lot like PRVB any good morning shove and failed follow through set up – just feels like once people stop trying to find the top it’ll fade off under radar – it’ll be a few days or week so there is a good chance you forget about it hence the price alerts.
GEO finally broke trend – looking for morning strength and then fade. Possible gap to fill back towards mid 10s
KTRA nice blow out – following the ONCS DBGI type moves where it’s obvious these things need money – shorts know that – shorts get too aggressive and get blown out it fades off has a secondary push and then they raise. Just be aware and be cautious. I’d love to see morning pop and then some failed follow through post open.
Continuation:
RMED I still have some long – bought dip on Friday sold some into the push and just holding a small chunk left. I want to stay familiar if it keeps flushing out but getting soaked I think we have a real possibility of a decent squeeze. If this fails to follow through don’t get too biased that it ‘has’ to.
RLX continued break out – notable move. No position but monitoring either for a faster break out to join or an exhaustion move like that VAXX big picture idea
PALI shoulda died so one of these days we may get a PR and squeeze out before the ultimate raise. It’s been holding oddly well and thin enough if they wanted to toy with it they can.
VAPO watch if dips soak for possible squeeze out
Staying Familiar:
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