I hope everyone had a fantastic LONG weekend. I went up to Omni Mt. Washington and went skiing at Bretton Woods. Can’t wait to get back to the annual ski trips that I’ve done for 6-7 years in a row with a bunch of trader friends.
Sunday videos and pre-market broadcasts continue to be super timely with warnings and anticipated market conditions for the week ahead. They are verbal warnings to myself on things that I know, typically – I’d have difficulty with.
The market continues to produce in a big way – as I wrote in Thursday scan I’m tired of seeing people make the same mistakes twice, three times… four and MORE. Stop stop stop stop. The only thing that is holding you back in this market is YOU (not the market). Failure to adapt. Inability to recognize key support/resistance levels. The focus on shiny objects etc. The market is there. And I’ll go over why – in the video.
ISPO brought a TON of opportunities to the market the last two days – everyone chasing everything for ZERO reasons. But, remember outlier moves can hang around and do more than you think – longer than you think. That’s why people get in trouble — “How much more can it go?” …. “It can’t go much higher right? … “This doesn’t make sense”
Our job is to take ADVANTAGE of market inefficiencies and pricing inefficiencies not be PART of them.
When something like ISPO comes on my plate sure, I may trade the first move or two but once it starts to hold oddly well and show outlier potential you’ll see me go into “avoid” mode. I want an edge. I want liquidity. I want to be able to control my risk in the trade I am in.
Giveaway Winners
- Scanz – Brent Wilton
- T-Shirt – Joey Touchstone and pauliemasters
Video Topics
- Confidence Comes From Preparation
- Don’t Forget Trades Once Crowd Gone (BKKT, KSCP)
- Trader Market (Stop Finding Reasons Why It Doesn’t Work For You)
- Relief Rally (Using Levels RBLX, AMC etc)
- ISPO Shiny Object – How To Find Edge (FSRD, QNGY, ANGH, CELZ etc)
- CPTN (Example)
- Liquidity Traps (HOOK vs MDJH vs. IRNT vs. VVOS)
Video Scan and Game Plan
Stocks to Watch
ROKU major trade off open Friday – started in cover flush and scaled for the big unwind. Trades like this are happening literally every day if you come prepared and respect levels they’ll respect you. Look left move in move out move on. The faster the move the more likely they are to reverse the slower the move the more likely they remain in trend as of late.
RBLX so far acting just like the AFRM thought process – compared it to it last week.
UVXY one step at a time here – understand what makes it move and why and when I think a market move is coming – this is my focus. Typically I have a hard time taking this product long. That said I’ll be looking for market panic and signs of reversal where anticipated volatility may slow.
DWAC Trump launched today so we’ll see what kind of response. I’d LOVE to see a big gap up and truly have no idea when the symbol change occurs but – we’ll see. Likely the most ‘front run’ anticipated launch in quite some time – besides something like SENS that I tweeted about on Friday. Not carrying a heavy bias because truly I think many are already on the same page – what happens if everyone expects the same thing? Focus where the crowd is – patience and don’t be part of the exhaustion IMO.
Failed Follow Through:
NRGV ideally some morning strength from the weekend and everyone getting excited that it’s going to the moon and then a fade back where it came from.
QNGY FSRD ANGH I’d have w/ same game plan higher better – ideally relief rally and failed follow through set up. One of the three of these will have one more bounce than most think and probably give folks being too aggressive a little test of their conviction.
KPTI non stop since the gap down – ideally get some sorta over extension again $1-2 + back to back days ideally blow off then settle back in.
REDU looking like the China liquidation play walk up monitoring for the day it fails.
ENOB setting price alerts waiting for the day likely $1-2 flush opp before they soak it back up.
Continuation:
BRCC had faded the opening each day until this started to form the wicks that we talk about on the daily — that changes bias to long. Major idea in room last week $17 and ripped to $22s + locked in a bunch when I said just in case it was sympathy thin vol due to ISPO types but this did hold on well again so I’m trying to let a long work (with the low avg) until it fails. To me feels very crowded on the short side.
HOOK liquidity trap set up like KAVL which by the way last week goal was $3.50 ($3.45 hit). These are not low float going to the moon type of liquidity traps and should not be confused as such – just a solid set up that has been working recently really well as you’ve seen them play out across names each week.
VVOS another look at a liquidity trap I never got there but we had the dip and rip candle noted on scan – just too light vol for me.
MDJH so far so good – def would be locking into rips can always re scale around core if it holds this is the thinner type clear buyer in tape since the high volume day. We had squeeze come in over the prior high you can see the vol associated – so now it’s just whether or not it builds again.
Staying Familiar:
Great content! This market definitely feels like a $0.20-$0.50 small take type of market. That said, I’m glad liquidity traps without massive pandemic spikes were mentioned. The market has changed and A+ setups feel sparse in this season.
I have been trading for a while and agree at the end of the day exhausted I have been trading with Bigalow group but looking for something else as well.