Relatively quick scan tonight – we have our local Gala that we put on over here in New Hampshire so lots happening and a pretty busy weekend.
Everyone has known for a very long time that things were getting out of hand – but if you were a perma non believer obviously you missed out on some major upside.
They key has been to know that someday it would come in at some point risk management would matter. As you’ve seen many were not given a chance to even get out — just look at stuff like PTON PENN or more talked about AMC losing nearly 50% in a week and a half or DOCU getting a 50% hair cut over night.
Yes as much as these things floated up more than you could ever imagine – the flight to safety can happen a lot quicker than you think.
Do NOT think that things have gone up TOO MUCH or pulled back TOO MUCH. This type of market is all about respecting trend – it may take a few tries in and out to get the big move you’re looking for but be cautious forcing a bias to be right!
Opportunities are not going anywhere I’ve always been a believer that we are in LOW INNINGS. My innings are all about OPPORTUNTIY because unlike many traders who go long only and thus maybe you’re on borrowed time at this point – this is absolutely my market – absolutely loved the short opportunities and at the end of the day these are the types of markets where my trading picks up and confidence (not too much confidence – that’s important) but perhaps conviction comes on the short side opportunity.
Video Scan and Game Plan
Stocks to Watch
VXX thinking we still may have some fear – my thought overall is fear may not be done. When we have a decent rally into close on the markets after a full day of selling I always suspect we could gap down flush out again before finding a new base — therefore giving us a nice gap opportunity and possible re-test on Friday highs. The most important thing with VXX is understanding how it works, when it works and what causes it to melt. Absolutely fantastic way to end the week last week.
LCID reactive trade off open 945-10AM + trend join if you’re wrong be wrong – cautious over sizing and the sooner you realize when it starts to channel sideways the better you can control your risk.
F pretty monster trade on Friday – shorted the gap up and faded it through the day. Thoughts remained as far as where I think this one is headed. It may take time and lots of re checks but — I still do think we flush sub $18s in the near term to reset the chart – we’ve been talking about it for a few weeks now and finally coming to fruition. The reason I’ve been interested in it is because as usual the risk vs. the potential reward is always where I am focused.
CFVI was a phenomenal trade last week hopefully we have a similar set up to trade if we get anymore cover off open in the AM. Volume has been great and love how they let it fade down all day Thursday allowing shorts to win and then coming back in a big way quickly at end of day. I learned something new on SPAC’s I actually had that understanding and asked someone about it 12 months ago and I guess asked the wrong question re: redemption etc. Always thought you had to be part of the deal itself and not just an open market buyer. I guess everyone that I’ve seen broken/destroyed is after the merger vote.
Failed Follow Through:
LABD monitoring for a day it gaps down and fails then unwinds all day b/c that’s the day it’s going to give us $4-5/share. There is no point forcing the trade just don’t forget when the sector shifts (again – understand what this is – it’s not a stock it’s an ETF)
MTTR definitely fumbled the trade here from an opportunity perspective $11-12/share fade from where I had been leaning on it in the room but hey what can you do. I’d like to see a chart reset around $20.
GOEV higher better for failed follow through possible slow unwind back to $8.50-9
Continuation:
CPIX high potential of liquidity trap set up – need to see it $4.90s and $5.30s confirm to really start to think of outlier potential UNTIL THEN it’s an idea a possibility I’m willing to anticipate but before I commit serious size like the last one we talk about — need to see it prove, prove again and move away from my average.
CYAD it’s under continuation but I won’t force the long here — it’s more about trend join. Friday felt like a trappy day of consolidation and held on. Shorts probably stayed present b/c they were up but yet didn’t really get a big exit. If dips hold $4.50 I’d consider a long to scale in vs. that risk. If we gap up and fail vs. Friday resistance clearly I’d be looking for failed follow through.
ABUS I really thought it’d have more — but I am still watching this thing for a cover to come in. I traded it long a few times totally missed the short but – still thinking if it firms up it could have that secondary move that no one is expecting. That said – if you sit here thinking it “has” to go and keep adding/holding w/o a plan – I don’t see an edge there. $4.30-4.40s key for this thesis if it starts to firm up.
Staying Familiar:
Appreciate this so much!!
Thanks Nate